The number of electric vehicles will exceed ten million, and the scale of charging pile digital sign

In September, the China Development and Reform Commission, the China Charging Alliance, the China Electric Vehicle Hundred Talents Association and others respectively released the ownership of new energy vehicles, pure electric vehicles and the operation of charging and changing facilities: by 2022, the ownership of electric vehicles in China will exceed 10 million; As of August, the number of charging posts was 4.315 million, exceeding the previous annual forecast. By 2030, China will have 80 million electric vehicles.

According to the 1:1 ratio of vehicle to pile, 37.7% of public piles and 20% of screen penetration rate, RUNTO estimates that by 2030, the market shipment of charging piles with screens will be close to 6 million, and the scale of digital signage configured will exceed 10 billion yuan.

As of August, the development of electric vehicles and charging piles has exceeded expectations

The data shows that by August 2022, the number of new energy vehicles in China has reached 10.99 million, accounting for about half of the world; The number of pure electric vehicles has reached 8.9 million, accounting for about 81% of new energy vehicles; The number of charging piles is 4.315 million; The number of public charging posts is 1.623 million, accounting for 37.7% of the total.

Change of new energy and electric vehicle ownership in China

Data source: National Development and Reform Commission; RUNTO sorting

According to the article "The sales of electric vehicles have soared by 164%, Volta's advertising charging pile is replicating in China" released by RUNTO in February this year, it is predicted that in 2022, the shipment of pure electric vehicles in the Chinese market will reach 3 million, and the ownership will increase to about 9.4 million; The number of charging piles will reach 3.8 million, of which the public charging piles are expected to ship 500000 and the number will reach 1.6 million.

Change and forecast of electric vehicle ownership in China

Data source: National Development and Reform Commission; RUNTO sorting

Data shows that the development status of both pure electric vehicles and supporting charging piles has far exceeded earlier expectations. In just 8 months, the ownership of pure electric vehicles has been close to the annual forecast at the beginning of the year. According to this rhythm, it is estimated that the annual number of electric vehicles will exceed 10 million, reaching 10.15 million. (Usually, most of China's auto sales are concentrated in September December)

At the same time, by the end of August, the overall charging pile of 4.315 million units and the public charging pile of 1.623 million units had exceeded the annual forecast, and the vehicle pile ratio had dropped from an average of 2.5:1 in recent years to 2.06:1.

Change in the number of charging piles and vehicle pile ratio in China

ata source: National Development and Reform Commission, China Charging Alliance; RUNTO sorting

Under the huge forecast, there are more than 50000 players related to the charging pile

On September 23, the China Electric Vehicle Association predicted that by 2030, the number of new energy vehicles will be 120 million, and the number of electric vehicles will be 80 million.

In January 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued the Implementation Opinions on Further Improving the Service Guarantee Capacity of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure, proposing to form a moderately advanced, balanced, intelligent and efficient charging infrastructure system, which can meet the charging demand of more than 20 million electric vehicles by the end of 2025.

In the Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure issued by the Chinese government in 2015, it was proposed that the vehicle pile ratio should be 1:1 by 2030.

The policy bonus that continues to increase attracts players from all walks of life to compete in the field of charging piles. As of August, there are more than 50000 enterprises related to charging piles in China.

The mainstream business models of the charging pile industry mainly include the operator led model represented by Xingxing Charging and Telun, the vehicle enterprise led model represented by Weilai, Avita and Tesla, and the third-party charging service platform led model represented by Energy Chain and Cloud Express Charging.

Mainstream business model of charging pile in China

Source: Charge and Exchange Research Institute

In order to provide good user service and establish the corporate brand image, the vehicle enterprises mainly promote the exclusive high-power charging pile suitable for their own models. Public charging pile operators with a wider audience radiate more models with standardized products and consider return on investment.

The charging pile industry chain includes upstream charging pile component manufacturers, midstream charging pile operation service providers, and downstream service support links. At present, the mature business model of midstream charging operators is still in the exploration stage, and it still takes a long time to achieve profitability.

Advertising charging pile came into being

Advertising charging pile is the product of the integration of outdoor digital signage and public charging pile. In fact, within 20-30 minutes of charging time, there is room to tap various derived service demands. The information release of the media carrier may become another source of income for the operation of the charging pile.

According to RUNTO data, in 2021, there will be 1.09 million public charging piles, 290000 more than the previous year, including 20% penetration rate of charging piles with screens and 58000 annual shipments.

The screen loaded by the charging post with screen is still mainly small, covering 3.4 inch, 7 inch, 10.1 inch to 15 inch. However, these products are limited by size and have little visual impact on users. It is difficult to scientifically quantify the conversion rate and value of advertising investment, and it is generally believed that it is difficult to achieve the expected return.

Digital signage enterprises in the commercial display industry have launched advertising charging posts with larger screen sizes, which are basically more than 30 inches in size, accounting for only 5% of the overall screen charging posts in 2021. According to the size breakdown, 42/43 inch and 32 inch products are more, accounting for 32% and 28% respectively, while the others are 55 inch, 65 inch and 75 inch.

According to the prediction that there will be 80 million electric vehicles by 2030, RUNTO estimates that about 30 million public charging piles are needed based on 1:1 vehicle pile ratio and 37.7% penetration rate of public piles. It is conservatively predicted that under the condition that the penetration rate of the screen in the charging pile market remains unchanged at 20% at present, by 2030, the market shipment volume of charging piles with screen will be close to 6 million, and the total investment in pile construction will be a market of 500 billion yuan. Among them, each screen of the charging pile configuration has the possibility of size upgrading and networking, which will become a digital sign with a market scale of more than 10 billion yuan.

Estimation Table for the Scale of Digital Signage Loaded by China Charging Pile

Data source: RUNTO

Judging from the growing demand of the current charging pile market, the innovation of the profit mode will certainly force the operators to upgrade and optimize the operation mode, making "charging pile+advertising+traffic" a new mode of the product's market value and one of the priority options for the sustainable development of the charging pile in the future.

Attached with policy summary: Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang and Beijing take the lead

On August 18, 2022, the executive meeting of the State Council decided to establish a coordination mechanism for the development of the new energy automobile industry, proposed to promote the survival of the fittest and the development of supporting industries with market-oriented methods, vigorously build charging piles, and support policy based development financial tools.

On August 25, 2022, the Ministry of Communications, the National Energy Administration, the State Grid and the China Southern Power Grid jointly issued the Action Plan for Accelerating the Construction of Charging Infrastructure along the Highway, which proposes that by the end of 2023, qualified service areas (stations) of ordinary national and provincial trunk highways can provide basic charging services. The data shows that up to now, about 13400 charging piles have been built in 3102 of the 6618 expressway service areas nationwide, which can basically meet the current charging requirements for new energy vehicles.

In terms of policies, 32 provinces nationwide have issued relevant policies to promote the development of charging piles, among which 16 provinces have made clear quantitative arrangements for the planning of charging piles.

Relevant policies of China's charging pile

Data source: RUNTO

Considering the current number of charging posts in various provinces/cities and the number of new energy vehicles, the market opportunities of charging posts with advertising function are mainly concentrated in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Beijing, Hubei, Shandong, Anhui, Henan and Fujian.

Number of public charging posts in all provinces of China in August 2022

Data source: RUNTO, unit: 10000

The new markets are the cities with the largest number of new energy vehicles, mainly Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Zhengzhou, Chongqing, Qingdao, Suzhou, Wuhan and Xi'an, all of which have more than 100000 new energy vehicles.

Top cities of China's new energy vehicle ownership in August 2022

Data source: RUNTO, unit: 10000